Aurora CFO David Maday explains how the AV company plans to scale from 200 driverless trucks in 2026 to 30,000 by 2030, with a shift to a $0.85-per-mile driver-as-a-service model.
The Numbers Behind an Audacious Target
Autonomous vehicle technology company Aurora told investors last week that it expects to have more than 30,000 self-driving trucks on the road generating $5 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2030. Set against where the company stands today, that is a striking projection: Aurora expects to close 2026 with just 200 driverless trucks and an $80 million revenue run rate.
CFO David Maday argues the gap between those two figures is less dramatic than it first appears. The key, he says, is context — specifically the size of the commercial truck market that Aurora is targeting.
"While 30,000 kind of feels like a lot — and it does in the autonomy space for sure — in terms of trucks relative to the overall market, it's kind of pretty small," he told TechCrunch in a recent interview, adding that the four major truck manufacturers produce anywhere between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks a year. "I don't think it's aspirational. I think we can do it."
That framing positions Aurora's 2030 goal as a modest slice of annual Class 8 production rather than an outlier scenario. Still, the market has not been quick to endorse the vision.
Investors Balk While the Roadmap Firms Up
Investors haven't exactly embraced Aurora's 2030 vision. Shares have continued to slide since the company's annual analyst and investor day on September 23. On Monday, shares closed down 12.42%, to $5.29.
According to Maday, investors have time to come around. The big "unlock" for Aurora starts in 2027 and accelerates from there. The company expects to go from 200 driverless trucks at the end of 2026 to more than 1,000 a year later.
From Owning the Truck to Selling the Driver
Today, Aurora operates what it calls a transportation-as-a-service business — a proof-of-concept model that it plans to limit to about 500 trucks. Under this structure, Aurora owns and operates the self-driving trucks and charges customers, including Detmar Logistics, Hirschbach, McLane, and Werner, about $2 per mile, a rate that includes a fuel surcharge. That works out to roughly the same rates as other carriers' typical pricing.
The real shift — and the real savings, Maday says — will happen next year when Aurora begins moving to a driver-as-a-service model. Key differences in that structure include:
- Customers buy the self-driving trucks instead of Aurora owning the fleet.
- Customers pay Aurora a per-mile subscription fee for the self-driving technology, which the company expects to be about $0.85.
- Customers own and maintain the truck, while Aurora maintains the self-driving system and its accompanying hardware.
Moving the trucks off Aurora's balance sheet is critical if the company wants to scale — and it's likely what investors are paying attention to. The company said it expects to reach breakeven gross margins on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027 with around 500 trucks on the road, meaning revenue would cover the direct costs of running the trucks.
Hardware, Aumovio, and the 2027 Inflection
The next big leap comes at the end of 2027 with Aurora's third-generation hardware — the sensors, computers, and other equipment that let its trucks drive themselves. This will be mass-produced autonomous vehicle hardware built by its partner Aumovio, formerly known as Continental. Aumovio isn't just engineering and manufacturing the hardware kit; the company is also financing it for Aurora, easing the financial burden on the self-driving truck company. Aumovio will also service and repair the kits for customers.
Aurora plans to expand its operations at the same time. By 2030, the company expects to grow beyond a few states in the South to the vast majority of the continental U.S., according to Maday.
"By 2028, I expect that our cost structures are going to be really outstanding, that's why you see our gross margin starting to take off," Maday said. "Once you get to that point, I think going into ride hailing is fine."
That last remark confirms Aurora still plans to eventually enter the robotaxi market — a signal that the company views its autonomous trucking stack as a platform play, not a single-vertical bet. For now, the near-term test is whether Aurora can convert its per-mile economics and manufacturing partnerships into a fleet that scales on schedule.